Why do border controls fail to stabilise epidemics?
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Parag, Kris
Hoscheit, Patrick
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Can border controls and travel restrictions suppress epidemics? This is an important and recurring question for public health policymaking and pandemic preparedness. Although there is a consensus that infections imported from external locations are critical to sustaining local epidemic growth and driving the endemic equilibria of the disease, there remains ongoing debate on the effectiveness of interventions aimed at curbing importations. Most studies contributing to this debate rely on complex metapopulation models that preclude generalisable insights and formal control principles are rarely used. Here we demonstrate how classical control theory applied to an analytic but flexible and widely used transmission model provides compelling evidence that border and travel restrictions fail to stabilise spread. These restrictions always enter as precompensators and hence fail to shift the epidemic poles. Consequently, regions cannot respond to emergent outbreaks in isolation. We find that coordinating interventions across both the local and external regions converts precompensation into feedback control and derive new criteria for overall stability. We further develop formulae specifying how border controls shape performance, such as disease equilibria and total infections. During growing epidemic phases, cooperative control is crucial for stability. Once stability is assured, border control can be sufficient to meet performance targets.
Date Issued
2026-01-12
Date Acceptance
2025-07-16
Citation
2025 IEEE 64th Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), 2026
ISBN
979-8-3315-2627-6
Publisher
IEEE
Journal / Book Title
2025 IEEE 64th Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)
Copyright Statement
©2025 IEEE. This is the author’s accepted manuscript made available under a CC-BY licence in accordance with Imperial’s Research Publications Open Access policy (www.imperial.ac.uk/oa-policy)
License URL
Source
64th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC 2025)
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2025-12-10
Finish Date
2025-12-12
Coverage Spatial
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil