Measuring mosquito-borne viral suitability in Myanmar and implications for local Zika virus transmission
File(s)
Author(s)
Perez-Guzman, Pablo Noel
Carlos Junior Alcantara, Luiz
Obolski, Uri
de Lima, Maricelia M
Ashley, Elizabeth A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Introduction: In South East Asia, mosquito-borne viruses (MBVs) have long been a cause of high disease burden and significant economic costs. While in some SEA countries the epidemiology of MBVs is spatio-temporally well characterised and understood, in others such as Myanmar our understanding is largely incomplete.
Materials and Methods: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar.
Results: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand.
Discussion: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.
Materials and Methods: Here, we use a simple mathematical approach to estimate a climate-driven suitability index aiming to better characterise the intrinsic, spatio-temporal potential of MBVs in Myanmar.
Results: Results show that the timing and amplitude of the natural oscillations of our suitability index are highly informative for the temporal patterns of DENV case counts at the country level, and a mosquito-abundance measure at a city level. When projected at fine spatial scales, the suitability index suggests that the time period of highest MBV transmission potential is between June and October independently of geographical location. Higher potential is nonetheless found along the middle axis of the country and in particular in the southern corridor of international borders with Thailand.
Discussion: This research complements and expands our current understanding of MBV transmission potential in Myanmar, by identifying key spatial heterogeneities and temporal windows of importance for surveillance and control. We discuss our findings in the context of Zika virus given its recent worldwide emergence, public health impact, and current lack of information on its epidemiology and transmission potential in Myanmar. The proposed suitability index here demonstrated is applicable to other regions of the world for which surveillance data is missing, either due to lack of resources or absence of an MBV of interest.
Date Issued
2018-09-28
Date Acceptance
2018-09-28
Citation
PLoS Currents: Tree of Life, 2018, 10, pp.1-15
ISSN
2157-3999
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Start Page
1
End Page
15
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Currents: Tree of Life
Volume
10
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). All content in PLOS Currents is open access and available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
Identifier
https://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/measuring-mosquito-borne-viral-suitability-in-myanmar-and-implications-for-local-zika-virus-transmission/
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-09-28