A practical dynamic earthquake cycle model as part of a physics-based seismic hazard analysis framework
File(s)
Author(s)
Muñoz Heinen, Luis Carlos
Type
Thesis or dissertation
Abstract
Physics-based approaches are increasingly being proposed as viable tools to be employed when computing seismic hazard. Contrary to current empirical approaches, these methods apply numerical simulations which consider advanced properties of the local seismic environment, explicitly model complex faulting features and comply with spatio-temporal correlations observed in regional fault networks. Although simulation-based ground-motion models have developed in their maturity and physics-based considerations are also being employed within source-characterization studies, the individual components remain up to now uncoupled within hazard studies. Hence, this thesis attempts a unified source characterization and ground motion modeling procedure as a viable approach for practical simulation-based applications. A single physical framework provides a stronger coupling between components so to remove physically implausible rupture scenarios from hazard studies. Additionally, the coupled approach effectively constrains current parametric and modelling uncertainties, which constitute a significant barrier to the widespread application of physics-based approaches in engineering projects. For this purpose, a simple two-dimensional fault model is derived from the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model so to facilitate the development and study of both hazard components. The aim is to simulate entire seismic cycles in order to generate synthetic catalogues of potential slip patterns which can be subsequently fed as input into existing ground motion models. A key objective of the work is to derive robust statistics about slip distributions over the entire spectrum of physically admissible source ruptures, and to link the underlying frictional characteristics that govern both the seismic cycle and individual source ruptures.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2021-11
Date Awarded
2023-03
Copyright Statement
Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial Licence
Advisor
Stafford, Peter
Publisher Department
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)