Tracking evolving views of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an expert prediction market
Author(s)
Roulston, Mark
Kaivanto, Kim
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began, the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, a prolonged quiet period during late August and early September possibly led forecasters to question these predictions, before later activity fulfilled the season’s high expectations. The CRUCIAL initiative ran a ‘prediction market’ during 2024 which allowed experts to bet on the number of hurricanes. Prices in this market provide an insight into how views changed during the season. Prediction markets can efficiently aggregate the judgements of multiple experts and provide more up-to-date information than periodically issued forecasts.
Date Issued
2025-08-01
Date Acceptance
2025-04-30
Citation
Weather, 2025, 80 (8), pp.277-280
ISSN
0043-1656
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
277
End Page
280
Journal / Book Title
Weather
Volume
80
Issue
8
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The Author(s). Weather published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Physical Sciences
Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2025-05-13