Quantitative evidence for modelling electric vehicles
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Jansen, Malte
Gross, Rob
Staffell, Iain
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Electric vehicles are now a major contributor to decarbonising the transport sector. Their rollout has accelerated rapidly since 2020, reaching a global fleet of 40 million in 2023. This presents both problems and opportunities for electricity systems, with charging increasing peak loads, but also providing a large new source of flexibility to help manage increased shares of wind and solar generation, shift peak demand and improve network management.
While EV flexibility is widely discussed, there is uncertainty surrounding the magnitude to which EVs could help electricity systems, and a distinct lack of quantitative evidence around adoption, charging behaviour and technical capabilities for load shifting. This study employs the rapid evidence assessment method to synthesise recent information. We find that studies expect that EVs could provide 1–11 GW of flexible capacity per million vehicles (median: 3.7 GW), with the ability to shift demand by 1.5–5 h (median: 4 h) and a price elasticity of −0.77 to −0.10 (median: 0.15). Diurnal profiles of charging demand and availability for providing flexibility are aggregated across multiple studies. The results are relevant for energy modellers and show that the interaction between EVs and electricity systems can be generalised on a widely-applicable basis.
While EV flexibility is widely discussed, there is uncertainty surrounding the magnitude to which EVs could help electricity systems, and a distinct lack of quantitative evidence around adoption, charging behaviour and technical capabilities for load shifting. This study employs the rapid evidence assessment method to synthesise recent information. We find that studies expect that EVs could provide 1–11 GW of flexible capacity per million vehicles (median: 3.7 GW), with the ability to shift demand by 1.5–5 h (median: 4 h) and a price elasticity of −0.77 to −0.10 (median: 0.15). Diurnal profiles of charging demand and availability for providing flexibility are aggregated across multiple studies. The results are relevant for energy modellers and show that the interaction between EVs and electricity systems can be generalised on a widely-applicable basis.
Date Issued
2024-07-01
Date Acceptance
2025-05-02
Citation
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2024, 199
ISSN
1364-0321
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Volume
199
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Identifier
10.1016/j.rser.2024.114524
Subjects
Charging profiles
Demand management
DEMAND RESPONSE
Electric vehicles
Energy & Fuels
ENERGY-STORAGE
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
IMPACTS
Price response
Rapid evidence assessment
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND
Science & Technology
Science & Technology - Other Topics
SYSTEMS
Technology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
114524
Date Publish Online
2025-05-13