Population growth, lifestyle and income changes as well as urbanisation are powerful
driving forces behind increasing demand for energy. Since 1900, world population
has more than quadrupled, real income has grown by a factor of 25, and primary
energy consumption has risen by a factor of 22.5. The joint phenomenon of urban
and economic growth is particularly relevant in Israel where 76% of the population
lives in cities and Israel economic growth rate stood at 5.4% in 2010, a relatively high
value compared to most of the OECD countries. As a consequence, total green House
Gas (GHG) emissions originated from the use fossil fuels in Israel are expected to rise
sharply in 2030. The promotion of renewable energy, particularly solar is a way to deal
with predicted rising emissions as well as addressing energy security and increase of oil
price that afflict the Middle East region. Worldwide, solar cell electricity generation
market has grown dramatically, both in terms of electricity generation and market size.
A paradox that this study addresses is that while Israel has developed and exported
advanced solar technology, it is among the last countries that actual use this type of
technology for self consumption.
For most of its history, Israel has been an energy-poor state, relying almost completely
on imported fossil fuels to meet its energy needs. However, the Israeli energetic independence
has been changed dramatically in 2009 when two large fields (nearly 3.1
Trillion Cubic Feet) of natural gas were discovered in the Mediterranean Sea 60 km
off the Israeli coast line. These discoveries have changed the energy market in Israel, bringing the decision makers to rethink about electricity production by renewable
energy sources.
The approaches developed in this thesis aims to achieve two main goals. To find electricity
capacity can be generated by solar technologies based on atmospheric parameters
and to find the optimal government incentive for renewable energy to encourage
private investors to invest in PV solar systems and thus to meet the government goals
of greenhouse gas reduction.
To tackle these two main goals of the research, two mathematical approaches and
decision-making models were developed. One model -Technical Environmental and
Atmospheric (TEA Model) and optimises the application and selection of solar energy
technologies in Israel. TEA model taking into accounts mainly atmospheric, demand
and environmental parameters. The model provides quantitative and qualitative formulations
to energy production capacity, costs, environmental impact and future electricity
demand. The second model (policy model) designed to optimise the level of
Feed in Tariff (FIT) by using a linear program and a Monte- Carlo Simulation. The
innovation of the study is that the decision-making model takes into account factors
that had not been considered together before but could have a decisive influence on
the uptake of the right solar energy technology.
This research found that the annual average energy output by PV system in Israel
is 1735kWh=kWp (+/- 10%) and the annual average of performance ratio is 82.3%.
In regards to atmospheric pollution, it was found that the increasing of air pollution
causes to decrease of electricity generation by more then 10% a year. In respects to
the policy analysis it was found the optimal FIT should be 0.15 $/kWh compared to
0.165 $/kWh which was paid in 2015.