Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison.
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0-2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs.
Date Issued
2021-06-21
Date Acceptance
2021-06-15
Citation
Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 793, pp.148549-148549
ISSN
0048-9697
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
148549
End Page
148549
Journal / Book Title
Science of the Total Environment
Volume
793
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34174618
PII: S0048-9697(21)03621-4
Grant Number
820846
Subjects
Climate policy
Energy system models
Europe
Integrated assessment models
Model inter-comparison
Stakeholder engagement
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Date Publish Online
2021-06-21