A dynamic competition model of regime change
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Accepted version
Published version
Author(s)
Syms, R
Solymar, L
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A dynamic competition model for an oppressive government opposed by rebels is proposed, based on coupled differential equations with constant coefficients. Depending on their values, the model allows scenarios representing a stable, oppressive government and violent regime change. With constant coefficients, there can be no limit cycles. However, cycles emerge if rebels and governments switch characteristics after a revolution, if resources change hands and rebel motivations switch from grievance to greed. This mechanism is proposed as an explanation for the establishment of a new repressive regime after the overthrow of a similar regime.
Date Issued
2015-11-01
Date Acceptance
2015-03-11
Citation
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2015, 66 (11), pp.1939-1947
ISSN
1476-9360
Publisher
Palgrave Macmillan
Start Page
1939
End Page
1947
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Operational Research Society
Volume
66
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
This article is distributed under a Creative Commons license (Attribution 3.0 Unported (CC BY 3.0)); therefore you may reuse this material without obtaining permission from Palgrave Macmillan, providing that the author and the original source of publication are fully acknowledged.
License URL
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Technology
Management
Operations Research & Management Science
Business & Economics
conflict analysis
simulation
system dynamics
PREDATOR-PREY MODEL
CIVIL-WAR
GUERRILLA WARFARE
VIOLENCE
REVOLUTIONS
REBELLION
Publication Status
Published