Modeling crowd dynamics through coarse-grained data analysis
File(s)1551-0018_2018_6_1271.pdf (2.08 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding and predicting the collective behaviour of crowds
is essential to improve the efficiency of pedestrian flows in urban areas and
minimize the risks of accidents at mass events. We advocate for the develop-
ment of crowd traffic management systems, whereby observations of crowds
can be coupled to fast and reliable models to produce rapid predictions of the
crowd movement and eventually help crowd managers choose between tailored
optimization strategies. Here, we propose a Bi-directional Macroscopic (BM)
model as the core of such a system. Its key input is the fundamental diagram
for bi-directional flows, i.e. the relation between the pedestrian fluxes and
densities. We design and run a laboratory experiments involving a total of
119 participants walking in opposite directions in a circular corridor and show
that the model is able to accurately capture the experimental data in a typical
crowd forecasting situation. Finally, we propose a simple segregation strat-
egy for enhancing the traffic efficiency, and use the BM model to determine
the conditions under which this strategy would be beneficial. The BM model,
therefore, could serve as a building block to develop on the fly prediction of
crowd movements and help deploying real-time crowd optimization strategies.
is essential to improve the efficiency of pedestrian flows in urban areas and
minimize the risks of accidents at mass events. We advocate for the develop-
ment of crowd traffic management systems, whereby observations of crowds
can be coupled to fast and reliable models to produce rapid predictions of the
crowd movement and eventually help crowd managers choose between tailored
optimization strategies. Here, we propose a Bi-directional Macroscopic (BM)
model as the core of such a system. Its key input is the fundamental diagram
for bi-directional flows, i.e. the relation between the pedestrian fluxes and
densities. We design and run a laboratory experiments involving a total of
119 participants walking in opposite directions in a circular corridor and show
that the model is able to accurately capture the experimental data in a typical
crowd forecasting situation. Finally, we propose a simple segregation strat-
egy for enhancing the traffic efficiency, and use the BM model to determine
the conditions under which this strategy would be beneficial. The BM model,
therefore, could serve as a building block to develop on the fly prediction of
crowd movements and help deploying real-time crowd optimization strategies.
Date Issued
2018-12-01
Date Acceptance
2018-04-26
Citation
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 2018, 15 (6), pp.1271-1290
ISSN
1547-1063
Publisher
American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Start Page
1271
End Page
1290
Journal / Book Title
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume
15
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2019 American Institute of Mathematical Sciences. This paper entilted \Modeling crowd dynamics through coarse-grained data analysis" is licensed
under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. See http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/3.0/.
under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. See http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by/3.0/.
Sponsor
The Royal Society
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
WM130048
EP/M006883/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Pedestrian traffic
bi-directional flux
collective behaviour
data-based modeling
macroscopic model
FLOW
SIMULATIONS
BEHAVIOR
Bioinformatics
0102 Applied Mathematics
0903 Biomedical Engineering
0904 Chemical Engineering
Publication Status
Published