The Philippines' energy transition: assessing emerging technology options using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Philippines aspires for a clean energy future but has become increasingly reliant on imported fossil fuels due to rising energy demands. Despite renewable energy targets and a coal moratorium, emissions reductions have yet to materialize. This study evaluates the potential of offshore wind (floating and fixed), floating solar PV, in-stream tidal, and nuclear power to contribute to a Net-Zero energy plan for the Philippines, utilizing the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Seven scenarios were analyzed, including least-cost, renewable energy targets; Net-Zero emissions; and variations in offshore wind growth and nuclear power integration. Floating solar PV and offshore wind emerged as key decarbonization technologies, with uptake in all scenarios. Achieving Net-Zero CO2 emissions by 2050 proved technically feasible but requires substantial capital, particularly after 2037. Current renewable energy targets are inadequate to induce emissions reductions; and a higher target of ~42% by 2035 was found to be more cost-effective. The addition of nuclear power showed limited cost and emissions benefits. Emissions reductions were projected to mainly occur after 2038, highlighting the need for more immediate policy action. Recommendations include setting a higher renewables target, offshore wind capacity goals, a roadmap for floating solar PV, and better incentives for private investment in renewables and electric transport.
Version
Imperial Users only
Date Issued
2025-01-08
Date Awarded
2023
Date Acceptance
2024-12-11
Citation
Climate, 2025, 13 (1)
ISSN
2225-1154
Publisher
MDPI
Journal / Book Title
Climate
Volume
13
Issue
1
License URL
Creator
Dixon, Lara
Description Note
Distinction
Publisher Department
Centre for Environmental Policy
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Subjects
decarbonization pathways
floating solar PV
least-cost planning
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Net Zero
offshore wind
Physical Sciences
renewable energy targets
Science & Technology
Qualification Level
Masters
Qualification Name
MSc
Course Name
Environmental Technology
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 14
Date Publish Online
2025-01-08