The Philippines' energy transition: assessing emerging technology options using OSeMOSYS (Open-Source Energy Modelling System)
Author(s)
Dixon, Lara
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The Philippines has become increasingly reliant on imported fossil fuels in recent years to
meet its rapidly growing energy demand. This has had the effect of increasing both CO2
emissions and the nation’s vulnerability to fuel price fluctuations and power outages. Efforts
to increase renewable uptake to combat this are underway but the nation remains one of the
world’s top new coal producers in 2023 and is the only member of ASEAN without a Net
Zero emissions target. Against this backdrop, the Philippines continues to seek alternative
technology options to bolster its energy security and clean energy transition. This study
evaluates the potential for offshore wind (floating and fixed), floating solar PV, in-stream tidal,
and nuclear power to contribute to a Net Zero long-term energy plan in the Philippines.
Utilising the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) model, seven scenarios
were examined. Three base scenarios evaluate the adoption of each technology under
increasing decarbonization commitments. Additional scenarios delve into the specific
contributions of offshore wind (OSW) and nuclear power. The results show that 1) Current
Renewable Energy targets are not ambitious and still permit a rise in emissions until 2050 2)
Net Zero will require a 381% increase in capital cost from the unconstrained scenario 3) The
World Bank's high growth offshore wind scenario is a strong policy target; 4) The addition of
nuclear power to the energy mix does not notably impact the emission profile or the overall
investment needed to achieve renewable energy targets and net zero; and 5)Floating solar
PV exhibits promising cost competitiveness and robust power generation potential for the
Philippines. It is recommended that the Philippines adopt more aggressive renewable energy
targets, set targets for OSW development, develop a roadmap for floating solar PV, and
increase incentives for investment for in electric vehicles and renewables.
meet its rapidly growing energy demand. This has had the effect of increasing both CO2
emissions and the nation’s vulnerability to fuel price fluctuations and power outages. Efforts
to increase renewable uptake to combat this are underway but the nation remains one of the
world’s top new coal producers in 2023 and is the only member of ASEAN without a Net
Zero emissions target. Against this backdrop, the Philippines continues to seek alternative
technology options to bolster its energy security and clean energy transition. This study
evaluates the potential for offshore wind (floating and fixed), floating solar PV, in-stream tidal,
and nuclear power to contribute to a Net Zero long-term energy plan in the Philippines.
Utilising the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) model, seven scenarios
were examined. Three base scenarios evaluate the adoption of each technology under
increasing decarbonization commitments. Additional scenarios delve into the specific
contributions of offshore wind (OSW) and nuclear power. The results show that 1) Current
Renewable Energy targets are not ambitious and still permit a rise in emissions until 2050 2)
Net Zero will require a 381% increase in capital cost from the unconstrained scenario 3) The
World Bank's high growth offshore wind scenario is a strong policy target; 4) The addition of
nuclear power to the energy mix does not notably impact the emission profile or the overall
investment needed to achieve renewable energy targets and net zero; and 5)Floating solar
PV exhibits promising cost competitiveness and robust power generation potential for the
Philippines. It is recommended that the Philippines adopt more aggressive renewable energy
targets, set targets for OSW development, develop a roadmap for floating solar PV, and
increase incentives for investment for in electric vehicles and renewables.
Version
Imperial Users only
Date Awarded
2023
Journal / Book Title
Climate
Creator
Dixon, Lara
Description Note
Distinction
Publisher Department
Centre for Environmental Policy
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Masters
Qualification Name
MSc
Course Name
Environmental Technology