Exact solving and sensitivity analysis of stochastic continuous time Boolean models
Author(s)
Koltai, Mihály
Noel, Vincent
Zinovyev, Andrei
Calzone, Laurence
Barillot, Emmanuel
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Solutions to stochastic Boolean models are usually estimated by Monte Carlo simulations, but as the state space of these models can be enormous, there is an inherent uncertainty about the accuracy of Monte Carlo estimates and whether simulations have reached all attractors. Moreover, these models have timescale parameters (transition rates) that the probability values of stationary solutions depend on in complex ways, raising the necessity of parameter sensitivity analysis. We address these two issues by an exact calculation method for this class of models. RESULTS: We show that the stationary probability values of the attractors of stochastic (asynchronous) continuous time Boolean models can be exactly calculated. The calculation does not require Monte Carlo simulations, instead it uses graph theoretical and matrix calculation methods previously applied in the context of chemical kinetics. In this version of the asynchronous updating framework the states of a logical model define a continuous time Markov chain and for a given initial condition the stationary solution is fully defined by the right and left nullspace of the master equation's kinetic matrix. We use topological sorting of the state transition graph and the dependencies between the nullspaces and the kinetic matrix to derive the stationary solution without simulations. We apply this calculation to several published Boolean models to analyze the under-explored question of the effect of transition rates on the stationary solutions and show they can be sensitive to parameter changes. The analysis distinguishes processes robust or, alternatively, sensitive to parameter values, providing both methodological and biological insights. CONCLUSION: Up to an intermediate size (the biggest model analyzed is 23 nodes) stochastic Boolean models can be efficiently solved by an exact matrix method, without using Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the model's timescale parameters often reveals a small subset of all parameters that primarily determine the stationary probability of attractor states.
Date Issued
2020-06-11
Date Acceptance
2020-05-18
Citation
BMC Bioinformatics, 2020, 21
ISSN
1471-2105
Publisher
BMC
Journal / Book Title
BMC Bioinformatics
Volume
21
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License,
which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate
credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were
made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your
intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative
Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made
available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate
credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were
made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless
indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your
intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly
from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative
Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made
available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32527218
Subjects
Models, Biological
Monte Carlo Method
Stochastic Processes
Asynchronous updating
Boolean modeling
Continuous time Markov chain
Exact method
Steady state solution
Stochastic model
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England
Article Number
241
Date Publish Online
2020-06-11