A machine learning-based risk stratification model for ventricular tachycardia and heart failure in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence are emerging as important components of precision medicine that enhance diagnosis and risk stratification. Risk stratification tools for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) exist, but they are based on traditional statistical methods. The aim was to develop a novel machine learning risk stratification tool for the prediction of 5-year risk in HCM. The goal was to determine if its predictive accuracy is higher than the accuracy of the state-of-the-art tools.
Method
Data from a total of 2302 patients were used. The data were comprised of demographic characteristics, genetic data, clinical investigations, medications, and disease-related events. Four classification models were applied to model the risk level, and their decisions were explained using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method. Unwanted cardiac events were defined as sustained ventricular tachycardia occurrence (VT), heart failure (HF), ICD activation, sudden cardiac death (SCD), cardiac death, and all-cause death.
Results
The proposed machine learning approach outperformed the similar existing risk-stratification models for SCD, cardiac death, and all-cause death risk-stratification: it achieved higher AUC by 17%, 9%, and 1%, respectively. The boosted trees achieved the best performing AUC of 0.82. The resulting model most accurately predicts VT, HF, and ICD with AUCs of 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively.
Conclusions
The proposed risk-stratification model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The use of a machine-learning risk stratification model may improve patient management, clinical practice, and outcomes in general.
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence are emerging as important components of precision medicine that enhance diagnosis and risk stratification. Risk stratification tools for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) exist, but they are based on traditional statistical methods. The aim was to develop a novel machine learning risk stratification tool for the prediction of 5-year risk in HCM. The goal was to determine if its predictive accuracy is higher than the accuracy of the state-of-the-art tools.
Method
Data from a total of 2302 patients were used. The data were comprised of demographic characteristics, genetic data, clinical investigations, medications, and disease-related events. Four classification models were applied to model the risk level, and their decisions were explained using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method. Unwanted cardiac events were defined as sustained ventricular tachycardia occurrence (VT), heart failure (HF), ICD activation, sudden cardiac death (SCD), cardiac death, and all-cause death.
Results
The proposed machine learning approach outperformed the similar existing risk-stratification models for SCD, cardiac death, and all-cause death risk-stratification: it achieved higher AUC by 17%, 9%, and 1%, respectively. The boosted trees achieved the best performing AUC of 0.82. The resulting model most accurately predicts VT, HF, and ICD with AUCs of 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively.
Conclusions
The proposed risk-stratification model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting events in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The use of a machine-learning risk stratification model may improve patient management, clinical practice, and outcomes in general.
Date Issued
2021-08-01
Date Acceptance
2021-07-09
Citation
Computers in Biology and Medicine, 2021, 135
ISSN
0010-4825
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Computers in Biology and Medicine
Volume
135
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34280775
PII: S0010-4825(21)00442-X
Subjects
Artificial intelligence
Biology
Computer Science
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
DIAGNOSIS
Engineering
Engineering, Biomedical
Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
Machine learning
Mathematical & Computational Biology
MRI
MULTIPLE IMPUTATION
Risk stratification
Science & Technology
SUDDEN CARDIAC DEATH
Technology
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Article Number
104648
Date Publish Online
2021-07-16