BACKGROUND: At present, it is difficult to predict which patients with ductal carcinoma-in-situ (DCIS) will subsequently develop frank invasive breast cancer (IDC). A recent survey by our group has shown that NY-ESO-1 and MAGEA are both expressed in DCIS. This study was aimed at determining whether expression of these antigens was related to the later development of IDC. RESULTS: 14 of 42 (33%) of patients developed invasive breast cancer during the follow up period. Only one of those DCIS cases that relapsed was positive for NYESO-1 at diagnosis. In contrast, DCIS samples of 15 of the 28 (54%) of those patients who remained disease-free expressed NY-ESO-1. (Permutation chi square p=0.0033). METHODS: We identified 42 patients with DCIS, and followed them up for more than 10 years. NY-ESO-1 and MAGEA were demonstrated by immunostaining as were CD8+ infiltrates on all sections together with the conventional markers, ER, PR, and HER2. CONCLUSIONS: Expression of NY-ESO-1 may predict those patients who will not subsequently develop invasive breast cancer and could therefore potentially be helpful in defining prognosis in patients with DCIS.