Event-based risk management for subsurface risks: An approach to protect value generation from oil and gas fields
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Smalley, C
Chebotar, K
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Event-based risk
management (EBRM) is an improved
way of describing subsurface
uncertainties and their possible business impacts in a manner that facilitates specific actions
to improve business performance. In EBRM, uncertainties are viewed as potential causes of
risk events that could in turn lead to consequences that affect the attainment of objectives.
This “causes-event-consequences” syntax aids the design of prevention measures to inhibit
the causes turning into the event, mitigation measures to reduce the potential
consequences should the risk event occur
, and also facilitates construction of a risk
taxonomy scheme based on risk
consequences, events and causes.
Using a dataset of 1456 subsurface risks, each risk was described in this manner
, placed in
the taxonomy and the proportion of risks in each taxonomic group analysed. This revealed
clear trends in the relative frequency of risk groups with type of field: for e
xample,
risks
related to hydrocarbon in-place volumes are more frequently identified in deep-water
oilfields and gas fields feeding liquefied natural gas plants, situations in which resource
volumes are critical to support the large project capital costs.
Trends were also evident with
field maturity: for example
, risks related to hydrocarbon in-place volumes are more
frequently identified before
the field sanction decision tha
n afterwards.
management (EBRM) is an improved
way of describing subsurface
uncertainties and their possible business impacts in a manner that facilitates specific actions
to improve business performance. In EBRM, uncertainties are viewed as potential causes of
risk events that could in turn lead to consequences that affect the attainment of objectives.
This “causes-event-consequences” syntax aids the design of prevention measures to inhibit
the causes turning into the event, mitigation measures to reduce the potential
consequences should the risk event occur
, and also facilitates construction of a risk
taxonomy scheme based on risk
consequences, events and causes.
Using a dataset of 1456 subsurface risks, each risk was described in this manner
, placed in
the taxonomy and the proportion of risks in each taxonomic group analysed. This revealed
clear trends in the relative frequency of risk groups with type of field: for e
xample,
risks
related to hydrocarbon in-place volumes are more frequently identified in deep-water
oilfields and gas fields feeding liquefied natural gas plants, situations in which resource
volumes are critical to support the large project capital costs.
Trends were also evident with
field maturity: for example
, risks related to hydrocarbon in-place volumes are more
frequently identified before
the field sanction decision tha
n afterwards.
Date Issued
2017-09-01
Date Acceptance
2016-11-30
Citation
AAPG Bulletin, 2017, 101 (9), pp.1473-1486
ISSN
0149-1423
Publisher
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Start Page
1473
End Page
1486
Journal / Book Title
AAPG Bulletin
Volume
101
Issue
9
License URL
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
UNCERTAINTY
0403 Geology
0914 Resources Engineering And Extractive Metallurgy
Energy
Publication Status
Published