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  4. WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia
 
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WETCHIMP-WSL: intercomparison of wetland methane emissions models over West Siberia
File(s)
bg-12-3321-2015.pdf (10.24 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Bohn, TJ
Melton, JR
Ito, A
Kleinen, T
Spahni, R
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Wetlands are the world's largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced pronounced warming and where thawing permafrost could potentially liberate large amounts of labile carbon over the next 100 years. However, global models disagree as to the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions, due to uncertainties in wetland area and emissions per unit area and a scarcity of in situ observations. Recent intensive field campaigns across the West Siberian Lowland (WSL) make this an ideal region over which to assess the performance of large-scale process-based wetland models in a high-latitude environment. Here we present the results of a follow-up to the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), focused on the West Siberian Lowland (WETCHIMP-WSL). We assessed 21 models and 5 inversions over this domain in terms of total CH4 emissions, simulated wetland areas, and CH4 fluxes per unit wetland area and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite surface water products. We found that (a) despite the large scatter of individual estimates, 12-year mean estimates of annual total emissions over the WSL from forward models (5.34 ± 0.54 Tg CH4 yr−1), inversions (6.06 ± 1.22 Tg CH4 yr−1), and in situ observations (3.91 ± 1.29 Tg CH4 yr−1) largely agreed; (b) forward models using surface water products alone to estimate wetland areas suffered from severe biases in CH4 emissions; (c) the interannual time series of models that lacked either soil thermal physics appropriate to the high latitudes or realistic emissions from unsaturated peatlands tended to be dominated by a single environmental driver (inundation or air temperature), unlike those of inversions and more sophisticated forward models; (d) differences in biogeochemical schemes across models had relatively smaller influence over performance; and (e) multiyear or multidecade observational records are crucial for evaluating models' responses to long-term climate change.
Date Issued
2015-06-03
Date Acceptance
2015-04-30
Citation
Biogeosciences, 2015, 12 (11), pp.3321-3349
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/40635
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015
ISSN
1726-4189
Publisher
European Geosciences Union
Start Page
3321
End Page
3349
Journal / Book Title
Biogeosciences
Volume
12
Issue
11
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Ecology
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Geology
NORTHERN HIGH-LATITUDES
TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODEL
ATMOSPHERIC METHANE
PERMAFROST CARBON
CLIMATE-CHANGE
NATURAL WETLANDS
WINTER FLUXES
CH4 EMISSIONS
EARTH SYSTEM
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
04 Earth Sciences
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biological Sciences
Publication Status
Published
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