A latent trawl process model for extreme values
File(s)A_latent_trawl_process_model.pdf (576.48 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Noven, Ragnhild
Veraart, A
Gandy, Axel
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal
dependence in exceedances
above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl pro
cesses, which are stationary,
infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for ex
treme values is constructed by
embedding a trawl process in a hierarchical framework, whic
h ensures that the marginal
distribution is generalised Pareto, as expected from class
ical extreme value theory. We
also consider a modified version of this model that works with
a wider class of generalised
Pareto distributions, and has the advantage of separating m
arginal and temporal depen-
dence properties. The model is illustrated by applications
to environmental time series,
and it is shown that the model offers considerable flexibility
in capturing the dependence
structure of extreme value data
dependence in exceedances
above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl pro
cesses, which are stationary,
infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for ex
treme values is constructed by
embedding a trawl process in a hierarchical framework, whic
h ensures that the marginal
distribution is generalised Pareto, as expected from class
ical extreme value theory. We
also consider a modified version of this model that works with
a wider class of generalised
Pareto distributions, and has the advantage of separating m
arginal and temporal depen-
dence properties. The model is illustrated by applications
to environmental time series,
and it is shown that the model offers considerable flexibility
in capturing the dependence
structure of extreme value data
Date Issued
2018-09-11
Date Acceptance
2018-03-20
Citation
Journal of Energy Markets, 2018, 11 (3), pp.1-24
ISSN
1756-3607
Publisher
Incisive Media
Start Page
1
End Page
24
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Energy Markets
Volume
11
Issue
3
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using our article tools. This article may be printed for the sole use of the
Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions.
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Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
FP7-PEOPLE-2012-CIG-321707
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
trawl process
peaks over threshold
generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)
pairwise likelihood estimation
marginal transformation model
conditional tail dependence coefficient
INFINITELY DIVISIBLE PROCESSES
STATIONARY
STATISTICS
DEPENDENCE
stat.ME
Publication Status
Published