Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)
File(s)489.full.pdf (354.25 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.
Date Issued
2020-05-01
Date Acceptance
2020-03-12
Citation
Science, 2020, 368 (6490), pp.489-493
ISSN
0036-8075
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Start Page
489
End Page
493
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
368
Issue
6490
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Identifier
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221
Subjects
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-03-15