Elimination or resurgence: modelling lymphatic filariasis after reaching the 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold.
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.
Date Issued
2020-06-11
Date Acceptance
2019-12-01
Citation
Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2020, 221 (Supplement_5), pp.S503-S509
ISSN
0022-1899
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
S503
End Page
S509
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume
221
Issue
Supplement_5
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31853554
PII: 5680710
Subjects
breakpoints
elimination
lymphatic filariasis
modelling
postvalidation surveillance
resurgence
thresholds
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2019-12-19