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  5. Levy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil-Sellers energy balance model
 
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Levy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil-Sellers energy balance model
File(s)
npg-29-183-2022.pdf (3.51 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Lucarini, Valerio
Serdukova, Larissa
Margazoglou, Georgios
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil–Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing warm and snowball climate states. We consider multiplicative stochastic forcing driven by Gaussian and α-stable Lévy – – noise laws, examine the statistics of transition times, and estimate the most probable transition paths. While the Gaussian noise case – used here as a reference – has been carefully studied in a plethora of investigations on metastable systems, much less is known about the Lévy case, both in terms of mathematical theory and heuristics, especially in the case of high- and infinite-dimensional systems. In the weak noise limit, the expected residence time in each metastable state scales in a fundamentally different way in the Gaussian vs. Lévy noise case with respect to the intensity of the noise. In the former case, the classical Kramers-like exponential law is recovered. In the latter case, power laws are found, with the exponent equal to −α, in apparent agreement with rigorous results obtained for additive noise in a related – yet different – reaction–diffusion equation and in simpler models. This can be better understood by treating the Lévy noise as a compound Poisson process. The transition paths are studied in a projection of the state space, and remarkable differences are observed between the two different types of noise. The snowball-to-warm and the warm-to-snowball most probable transition paths cross at the single unstable edge state on the basin boundary. In the case of Lévy noise, the most probable transition paths in the two directions are wholly separated, as transitions apparently take place via the closest basin boundary region to the outgoing attractor. This property can be better elucidated by considering singular perturbations to the solar irradiance.
Date Issued
2022-05-11
Date Acceptance
2022-04-05
Citation
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2022, 29 (2), pp.183-205
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/97460
URL
https://npg.copernicus.org/articles/29/183/2022/
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-183-2022
ISSN
1023-5809
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
183
End Page
205
Journal / Book Title
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Volume
29
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000793273000001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Geology
Mathematics
Physics
SYSTEM
STATES
Publication Status
Published
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