Identification and prioritization of uncertainties for management of Eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)
File(s)JMPO-D-14-00060R1.pdf (1.71 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Leach, Adrian W
Levontin, Polina
Holt, Johnson
Kell, Laurence T
Mumford, John D
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In recent decades there has been steady progress towards a risk-based management approach for fisheries. An important first step in a risk analysis framework is scoping to identify, describe and catalog the sources of uncertainty that might have an impact on a fishery. This paper introduces a methodology based on a range of tools to formalize the process of elicitation of uncertainties, from both experts and stakeholders, for the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). ICCAT is a regional fisheries management organization responsible for the conservation of tunas and other highly migratory fish in the Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas. The aim of the elicitation was to identify and prioritize uncertainties for inclusion in Operating Models for Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). The tool presented in this paper supports the qualitative prioritization of uncertainties, while also visualizing the degree of consensus among stakeholders on particular issues. Perceptions of uncertainty in fisheries often vary widely among scientists, industry and other interest groups, so tools that can facilitate inclusion and representation of different opinions are useful where decision-making depends on broad agreement and more generally, where effective management depends on commitment from stakeholders.
Date Issued
2014-09-01
Date Acceptance
2014-03-06
Citation
Marine Policy, 2014, 48, pp.84-92
ISSN
0308-597X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
84
End Page
92
Journal / Book Title
Marine Policy
Volume
48
Copyright Statement
© 2014, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Science & Technology
Social Sciences
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Studies
International Relations
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Stock assessment
Risk analysis
Uncertainty
Expert elicitation
Visualization
Bluefin tuna
FISHERIES MANAGEMENT
POPULATION-DYNAMICS
CARRYING-CAPACITY
MIGRATION
SCIENCE
EXPERTS
Publication Status
Published