Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013 – 2016
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest on record with 28 616 confirmed, probable and suspected cases and 11 310 deaths officially recorded by 10 June 2016, the true burden probably considerably higher. The case fatality ratio (CFR: proportion of cases that are fatal) is a key indicator of disease severity useful for gauging the appropriate public health response and for evaluating treatment benefits, if estimated accurately. We analysed individual-level clinical outcome data from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone officially reported to the World Health Organization. The overall mean CFR was 62.9% (95% CI: 61.9% to 64.0%) among confirmed cases with recorded clinical outcomes. Age was the most important modifier of survival probabilities, but country, stage of the epidemic and whether patients were hospitalized also played roles. We developed a statistical analysis to detect outliers in CFR between districts of residence and treatment centres (TCs), adjusting for known factors influencing survival and identified eight districts and three TCs with a CFR significantly different from the average. From the current dataset, we cannot determine whether the observed variation in CFR seen by district or treatment centre reflects real differences in survival, related to the quality of care or other factors or was caused by differences in reporting practices or case ascertainment.
Date Issued
2017-04-10
Date Acceptance
2016-11-11
Citation
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2017, 372
ISSN
1471-2970
Publisher
Royal Society, The
Journal / Book Title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume
372
Copyright Statement
© 2017 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original
author and source are credited.
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Medical Research Council (MRC)
National Institute for Health Research
Grant Number
G0600719B
MR/K010174/1B
HPRU-2012-10080
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
Ebola virus disease
case fatality ratio
severity
mortality
outlier detection
spatial heterogeneity
VIRUS DISEASE
SIERRA-LEONE
EPIDEMIOLOGY
PERFORMANCE
SURVIVAL
FEATURES
OUTCOMES
CONAKRY
GUINEA
Evolutionary Biology
06 Biological Sciences
11 Medical And Health Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
20160308