A dynamic power-law sexual network model of gonorrhoea outbreaks
File(s)A-dynamic-power-law-sexual-network-model.pdf (1.75 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Whittles, Lilith
White, Peter
Didelot, Xavier
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Human networks of sexual contacts are dynamic by nature, with partnerships forming and breaking continuously over time. Sexual behaviours are also highly heterogeneous, so that the number of partners reported by individuals over a given period of time is typically distributed as a power-law. Both the dynamism and heterogeneity of sexual partnerships are likely to have an effect in the patterns of spread of sexually transmitted diseases. To represent these two fundamental properties of sexual networks, we developed a stochastic process of dynamic partnership formation and dissolution, which results in power-law numbers of partners over time. Model parameters can be set to produce realistic conditions in terms of the exponent of the power-law distribution, of the number of individuals without relationships and of the average duration of relationships. Using an outbreak of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea amongst men have sex with men as a case study, we show that our realistic dynamic network exhibits different properties compared to the frequently used static networks or homogeneous mixing models. We also consider an approximation to our dynamic network model in terms of a much simpler branching process. We estimate the parameters of the generation time distribution and offspring distribution which can be used for example in the context of outbreak reconstruction based on genomic data. Finally, we
investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population.
investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population.
Date Issued
2019-03-08
Date Acceptance
2019-01-04
Citation
PLoS Computational Biology, 2019, 15 (3)
ISSN
1553-734X
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Computational Biology
Volume
15
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Whittles et al. This is an open
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original
author and source are credited.
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which
permits unrestricted use, distribution, and
reproduction in any medium, provided the original
author and source are credited.
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Grant Number
HPRU-2012-10080
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biochemical Research Methods
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
UK NATIONAL GUIDELINE
NEISSERIA-GONORRHOEAE
INFECTIOUS-DISEASE
TRANSMITTED-DISEASES
TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS
RECTAL GONORRHEA
HOMOSEXUAL-MEN
HEALTH-CARE
PREVALENCE
CHLAMYDIA
Disease Outbreaks
Gonorrhea
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Sexual Behavior
Humans
Gonorrhea
Sexual Behavior
Disease Outbreaks
Models, Theoretical
Bioinformatics
06 Biological Sciences
08 Information and Computing Sciences
01 Mathematical Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
e1006748
Date Publish Online
2019-03-08