Role and value of flexibility options in supporting cost-effective power system expansion planning under uncertainties
File(s)
Author(s)
Borozan, Stefan
Type
Thesis
Abstract
Decarbonisation actions are driving progressive changes in the technological landscape and operational paradigms in power systems, leading to major challenges and uncertainties. Among else, substantial infrastructure investments are required to accommodate new assets and higher demand, but decision-makers face difficulties as the commitment to flawed investment plans could result in considerable economic, social, and environmental costs. This research aims to address the needs for enhanced coordination, advanced modelling frameworks, and flexible investment options in efforts to manage the risks associated with planning under uncertainties and to facilitate a cost-effective transition to a sustainable future. First, the computational performance of sophisticated modelling frameworks is addressed through the development of a machine learning-enhanced multicut Benders decomposition approach for the stochastic power system expansion planning problem. Its application in the case studies enables the solution of a previously intractable large-scale problem and leads to reductions in average master problem computation times of up to 72%. The focus is then placed on turning the challenge of accommodating future electrical demand of electric vehicles into an opportunity for strategic decision-making by employing smart charging concepts as investment options. For this purpose, the roles and values of Grid-to-Vehicle, Vehicle-to-Grid, and Vehicle-to-Building, in supporting cost-effective expansion planning, are evaluated through novel computationally efficient modelling in a multi-stage stochastic programming framework. Lastly, this research proposes a multi-stage integrated transmission and distribution expansion planning model that co-optimises investments in assets with diverse techno-economic characteristics to investigate the benefits of flexibility options in this context. The role of smart investment alternatives is evaluated with emphasis on investment flexibility as a means to hedge against uncertainties and their value is quantified using insights from Real Options Theory. The case studies validate flexibility options, including smart charging concepts, as viable and highly valuable alternatives to infrastructure reinforcements under all examined conditions.
Version
Open Access
Date Issued
2023-09
Date Awarded
2023-12
Copyright Statement
Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial Licence
License URL
Advisor
Strbac, Goran
Publisher Department
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Publisher Institution
Imperial College London
Qualification Level
Doctoral
Qualification Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)