International evaluation of an AI system for breast cancer screening
File(s)Manuscript - Nature.docx (3.69 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Screening mammography aims to identify breast cancer at earlier stages of the disease, when treatment can be more successful1. Despite the existence of screening programmes worldwide, the interpretation of mammograms is affected by high rates of false positives and false negatives2. Here we present an artificial intelligence (AI) system that is capable of surpassing human experts in breast cancer prediction. To assess its performance in the clinical setting, we curated a large representative dataset from the UK and a large enriched dataset from the USA. We show an absolute reduction of 5.7% and 1.2% (USA and UK) in false positives and 9.4% and 2.7% in false negatives. We provide evidence of the ability of the system to generalize from the UK to the USA. In an independent study of six radiologists, the AI system outperformed all of the human readers: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for the AI system was greater than the AUC-ROC for the average radiologist by an absolute margin of 11.5%. We ran a simulation in which the AI system participated in the double-reading process that is used in the UK, and found that the AI system maintained non-inferior performance and reduced the workload of the second reader by 88%. This robust assessment of the AI system paves the way for clinical trials to improve the accuracy and efficiency of breast cancer screening.
Date Issued
2020-01-01
Date Acceptance
2019-11-05
Citation
Nature, 2020, 577 (7788), pp.89-94
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
89
End Page
94
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
577
Issue
7788
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2019.
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
National Institute of Health Research
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31894144
PII: 10.1038/s41586-019-1799-6
Grant Number
NF-SI-0510-10186
Subjects
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
England