Limiting temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels
Author(s)
Rogelj, Joeri
Lamboll, Robin
Jennifer, Bird
Type
Report
Abstract
Key points
• The Paris Agreement 1.5°C target has not yet been missed: in 2023 and 2024 we have experienced some temporary temperature spikes where the global average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is of great concern, but the long-term average global temperature increase is currently at around 1.2°C.
• We are, however, at high risk of exceeding the 1.5°C level; at current emission levels, the remaining global carbon budget will be exhausted within about 5 years.
• We therefore need to set out ambitious plans to rapidly move away from fossil fuels and scale up clean alternatives to reduce emissions across all parts of the economy. This will slow down and halt warming, with a possibility that this is below or around 1.5°C.
• It makes sense to pursue rigorous mitigation efforts – with every fraction of a degree of warming beyond 1.5°C, impacts will become more severe, and the costs of adaptation will be greater.
• The Paris Agreement 1.5°C target has not yet been missed: in 2023 and 2024 we have experienced some temporary temperature spikes where the global average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is of great concern, but the long-term average global temperature increase is currently at around 1.2°C.
• We are, however, at high risk of exceeding the 1.5°C level; at current emission levels, the remaining global carbon budget will be exhausted within about 5 years.
• We therefore need to set out ambitious plans to rapidly move away from fossil fuels and scale up clean alternatives to reduce emissions across all parts of the economy. This will slow down and halt warming, with a possibility that this is below or around 1.5°C.
• It makes sense to pursue rigorous mitigation efforts – with every fraction of a degree of warming beyond 1.5°C, impacts will become more severe, and the costs of adaptation will be greater.
Date Issued
2024-11-22
Citation
Grantham Institute background briefing, 2024, pp.1-6
Publisher
Imperial Grantham Institute
Start Page
1
End Page
6
Journal / Book Title
Grantham Institute background briefing
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The authors, produced for The Grantham Institute. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-No-Derivatives 4.0 International License. This license permits all or part of the work to be copied and shared with others, provided that the original authors and source are credited.
Publication Status
Published