Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change
File(s)
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.
Date Issued
2022-08-10
Date Acceptance
2022-06-08
Citation
Nature, 2022, 608, pp.275-286
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Research
Start Page
275
End Page
286
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
608
Copyright Statement
© 2022, Springer Nature Limited. The final publication is available at Springer via https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04946-0
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Grant Number
NE/R018219/1
NE/W000172/1
Subjects
Antarctic Regions
Climate Models
Forecasting
Global Warming
History, 21st Century
Ice Cover
Sea Level Rise
Temperature
Temperature
Ice Cover
Forecasting
History, 21st Century
Antarctic Regions
Global Warming
Sea Level Rise
Climate Models
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published