Understanding soaring corona virus cases and the effect of contagion policies in the UK
File(s)vaccines-09-00735.pdf (518.6 KB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Duran-Olivencia, Miguel
Kalliadasis, Serafim
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
The number of new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections is frantically rising
in almost every country of the EU. The phenomenological explanation
offered is a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK.
We use publicly available data in combination with a controlled SIR
model, which captures the effects of preventive measures on the active
cases, to show that the current wave of infections is consistent
with a single transmission rate. This suggests that the new SARSCoV-
2 variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findings
indicate that the relaxation of preventive measures is closely related
with the ongoing surge in cases. We simulate the effects of new
restrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating that
lockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve. For effective
mitigation, it is critical that the public keeps on high alert until
vaccination reaches a critical threshold.
in almost every country of the EU. The phenomenological explanation
offered is a new mutation of the virus, first identified in the UK.
We use publicly available data in combination with a controlled SIR
model, which captures the effects of preventive measures on the active
cases, to show that the current wave of infections is consistent
with a single transmission rate. This suggests that the new SARSCoV-
2 variant is as transmissible as previous strains. Our findings
indicate that the relaxation of preventive measures is closely related
with the ongoing surge in cases. We simulate the effects of new
restrictions and vaccination campaigns in 2021, demonstrating that
lockdown policies are not fully effective to flatten the curve. For effective
mitigation, it is critical that the public keeps on high alert until
vaccination reaches a critical threshold.
Editor(s)
Ralph, Tripp
Stephen, Bradfute
Scott, Anthony
Date Issued
2021-07-03
Date Acceptance
2021-06-23
Citation
Vaccines, 2021, Collection COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination, 9 (7), pp.1-7
ISSN
2076-393X
Publisher
MDPI AG
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Vaccines
Volume
9
Issue
7
Copyright Statement
© 2021 by the authors.Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This article is an open access articledistributed under the terms andconditions of the Creative CommonsAttribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250822v1
Grant Number
EP/L020564/1
Subjects
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIR
Edition
Collection COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 735
Date Publish Online
2021-07-03