Predicting global patterns of long-term climate change from short-term simulations using machine learning
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Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Understanding and estimating regional climate change under different anthropogenic emission scenarios is pivotal for informing societal adaptation and mitigation measures. However, the high computational complexity of state-of-the-art climate models remains a central bottleneck in this endeavour. Here we introduce a machine learning approach, which utilises a unique dataset of existing climate model simulations to learn relationships between short-te¬rm and long-term temperature responses to different climate forcing scenarios. This approach not only has the potential to accelerate climate change projections by reducing the costs of scenario computations, but also helps uncover early indicators of modelled long-term climate responses, which is of relevance to climate change detection, predictability and attribution. Our results highlight challenges and opportunities for data-driven climate modelling, especially concerning the incorporation of even larger model datasets in the future. We therefore encourage extensive data sharing among research institutes to build ever more powerful climate response emulators, and thus to enable faster climate change projections.
Date Issued
2020-11-19
Date Acceptance
2020-10-12
Citation
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2020, 3
ISSN
2397-3722
Publisher
Nature Research
Journal / Book Title
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume
3
Copyright Statement
© The Author(s) 2020. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Leverhulme Trust
The Leverhulme Trust
Grant Number
EP/L016613/1
RC-2018-023
Subjects
Climate
Climate Change
Machine Learning
Statistics
Atmosphere
Earth Sciences
Earth (Planet)
Policy
Policy Making
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 44