Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
Date Issued
2023-09
Date Acceptance
2023-09-01
Citation
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2023, 12 (3), pp.182-199
ISSN
2225-6032
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
182
End Page
199
Journal / Book Title
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Volume
12
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communi cation Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000413?via%3Dihub
Subjects
ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION
Climate services
CLOUD FEEDBACK
EL-NINO
EXTRATROPICAL IMPACTS
HURRICANE FREQUENCY
MERIDIONAL MODE
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
OCEAN
Physical Sciences
Science & Technology
Seasonal forecasting
SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
Tropical cyclones
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-09-17