Early insights from statistical and mathematical modeling of key epidemiologic parameters of COVID-19
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
Date Issued
2020-11
Date Acceptance
2020-09-01
Citation
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2020, 26 (11)
ISSN
1080-6040
Publisher
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Journal / Book Title
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Volume
26
Issue
11
Sponsor
Medical Research Council
Identifier
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/11/20-1074_article
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
1103 Clinical Sciences
1108 Medical Microbiology
1117 Public Health and Health Services
Microbiology
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2020-09-11