A novel data-driven scenario generation framework for transmission expansion planning with high renewable energy penetration
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Sun, M
Cremer, Jochen
Strbac, Goran
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Transmission expansion planning (TEP) is facing unprecedented challenges with the rise of integrated renewable energy resources (RES), flexible load elements, and the potential electrification of transport and heat sectors. Under this reality, the inadequate information of the stochastic parameters’ behavior may lead to inefficient expansion decisions, especially in the context of very high renewable penetration. This paper proposes a novel data-driven scenario generation framework for the TEP problem to generate unseen but important load and wind power scenarios while capturing inter-spatial dependencies between loads and wind generation units’ output in various locations, using a vine-copula based high-dimensional stochastic variable modeling approach. The superior performance of the proposed model is demonstrated through a case study on a modified IEEE 118-bus system. The expected result of using the expected value problem solution (EEV) and the net benefits of transmission expansion (NBTE) are used as the evaluation metrics to quantitatively illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach. In addition, the case of very high wind penetration is carried out to further highlight the importance of the multivariate stochastic dependence of load and wind power generation. The results demonstrate that the proposed scenario generation method can result in near-optimal investment decisions for the TEP problem that make more net benefits than using limited number of historical data.
Date Issued
2018-10-15
Date Acceptance
2018-06-20
Citation
Applied Energy, 2018, 228, pp.546-555
ISSN
0306-2619
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
546
End Page
555
Journal / Book Title
Applied Energy
Volume
228
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
09 Engineering
14 Economics
Energy
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-07-06