Influencing public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infectious diseases: Recent developments and new challenges
File(s)1-s2.0-S1755436520300207-main.pdf (1.59 MB)
Published version
OA Location
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Modern data and computational resources, coupled with algorithmic and theoretical advances to exploit these, allow disease dynamic models to be parameterised with increasing detail and accuracy. While this enhances models' usefulness in prediction and policy, major challenges remain. In particular, lack of identifiability of a model's parameters may limit the usefulness of the model. While lack of parameter identifiability may be resolved through incorporation into an inference procedure of prior knowledge, formulating such knowledge is often difficult. Furthermore, there are practical challenges associated with acquiring data of sufficient quantity and quality. Here, we discuss recent progress on these issues.
Date Issued
2020-09-01
Date Acceptance
2020-04-25
Citation
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, 2020, 32
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics
Volume
32
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32674025
PII: S1755-4365(20)30020-7
Subjects
Bayesian analysis
Computational methodology
Data challenges
Parameter identifiability
Policy and communication
Prior knowledge
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Article Number
ARTN 100393
Date Publish Online
2020-05-17