Bayesian model selection with future 21cm observations of the epoch of reionization
File(s)
Accepted version
OA Location
Author(s)
Binnie, T
Pritchard, JR
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We apply Bayesian statistics to perform model selection on different reionization scenarios via the MULTINEST algorithm. Initially, we recover the results shown by 21CMMC for the parameter estimation of 21CMFAST models. We proceed to test several toy models of the epoch of reionization defined in contrasting morphology and scale. We find that LOFAR observations are unlikely to allow model selection even with long integration times. HERA would require 61 dipoles to perform the same analysis in 1080 h, and becomes comparable to the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) with 217 dipoles. We find the SKA requires only 324 h of observation to conclusively distinguish between our models. Once model selection is achievable, an analysis of observational priors is performed finding that neutral fraction checks at specific redshifts add little to no inference. We show the difficulties in model selection at the level of distinguishing fiducial parameters within a model or distinguishing galaxies with a constant versus power-law mass-to-light ratio. Finally, we explore the use of the Savage–Dickey density ratio to show the redundancy of the parameter Rmfp within 21CMFAST.
Date Issued
2019-07-01
Date Acceptance
2019-05-04
Citation
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2019, 487 (1), pp.1160-1177
ISSN
0035-8711
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Start Page
1160
End Page
1177
Journal / Book Title
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume
487
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version T Binnie, J R Pritchard, Bayesian model selection with future 21cm observations of the epoch of reionization, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 487, Issue 1, July 2019, Pages 1160–1177 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stz1297
This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model). This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version T Binnie, J R Pritchard, Bayesian model selection with future 21cm observations of the epoch of reionization, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 487, Issue 1, July 2019, Pages 1160–1177 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stz1297
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000474907100089&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
638743
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Astronomy & Astrophysics
instrumentation: interferometers
methods: statistical
galaxies: fundamental parameters
galaxies: statistics
dark ages, reionization, first stars
IONIZING-RADIATION
COSMIC DAWN
1ST STARS
CM SIGNAL
SIMULATIONS
GALAXIES
ESCAPE
COSMOLOGY
PARAMETER
EFFICIENT
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-05-10