One-shot learning of stochastic differential equations with data adapted kernels
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Darcy, Matthieu
Hamzi, Boumediene
Livieri, Giulia
Owhadi, Houman
Tavallali, Peyman
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We consider the problem of learning Stochastic Differential Equations of the form
dXt = f(Xt)dt + σ(Xt)dWt from one sample trajectory. This problem is more challenging
than learning deterministic dynamical systems because one sample trajectory only provides
indirect information on the unknown functions f, σ, and stochastic process dWt representing
the drift, the diffusion, and the stochastic forcing terms, respectively. We propose a method
that combines Computational Graph Completion [46] and data adapted kernels learned via a
new variant of cross validation. Our approach can be decomposed as follows: (1) Represent the
time-increment map Xt → Xt+dt as a Computational Graph in which f, σ and dWt appear
as unknown functions and random variables. (2) Complete the graph (approximate unknown
functions and random variables) via Maximum a Posteriori Estimation (given the data) with
Gaussian Process (GP) priors on the unknown functions. (3) Learn the covariance functions
(kernels) of the GP priors from data with randomized cross-validation. Numerical experiments
illustrate the efficacy, robustness, and scope of our method.
dXt = f(Xt)dt + σ(Xt)dWt from one sample trajectory. This problem is more challenging
than learning deterministic dynamical systems because one sample trajectory only provides
indirect information on the unknown functions f, σ, and stochastic process dWt representing
the drift, the diffusion, and the stochastic forcing terms, respectively. We propose a method
that combines Computational Graph Completion [46] and data adapted kernels learned via a
new variant of cross validation. Our approach can be decomposed as follows: (1) Represent the
time-increment map Xt → Xt+dt as a Computational Graph in which f, σ and dWt appear
as unknown functions and random variables. (2) Complete the graph (approximate unknown
functions and random variables) via Maximum a Posteriori Estimation (given the data) with
Gaussian Process (GP) priors on the unknown functions. (3) Learn the covariance functions
(kernels) of the GP priors from data with randomized cross-validation. Numerical experiments
illustrate the efficacy, robustness, and scope of our method.
Date Issued
2023-02
Date Acceptance
2022-10-27
Citation
Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 2023, 444
ISSN
0167-2789
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena
Volume
444
Copyright Statement
Copyright © Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000926762000007&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=a2bf6146997ec60c407a63945d4e92bb
Subjects
Computational graph completion
Gaussian Processes
Kernel methods
Machine learning
Mathematics
Mathematics, Applied
Physical Sciences
Physics
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Physics, Mathematical
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Science & Technology
Stochastic differential equations
Times series forecasting
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
133583
Date Publish Online
2022-11-11