Large‐scale (500 ≤ r ≤ 2,200 km) outgoing long‐wave radiation (OLR) and water vapour (WV) fields are investigated in satellite observations over the Pacific, linked to ERA‐5 reanalysis data and the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) globally. A large‐scale OLR dipole pattern of low and high fluxes are found in both the observations and model. As expected, a low OLR region is positioned within the TC circulation, but there is also a robust high OLR region poleward and west of the TC centre. A dry “black hole” on WV grey‐scale imagery occupies the same region of high OLR. Relative to the central low OLR TC signal, the typical dipole magnitude, distance and orientation of the high OLR regions are 230 W·m−2, 1,150 km, and 145° anticlockwise from east. From the reanalysis we find that the interaction between the vortex and the environmental flows produces upper‐level convergence, low‐level divergence and subsidence throughout the troposphere in the region of high OLR. Analysis of the ECMWF model shows that the position of the high OLR region rotates anticlockwise about the TC centre as the TC moves from westward to eastward. Through use of a sub‐ensemble, we test if capturing the high OLR anomaly has a significant relationship with TC track. We apply a perfect model approach and find that sub‐ensembles that are composed of models whose large‐scale OLR fields closely match the target TC also have a better track. This improvement is mostly attributed to the high OLR component of the dipole.