Asset price booms and macroeconomic policy: a risk-shifting approach
File(s)LeanScreen38-Final-Submission-3Dec20.pdf (558.26 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Allen, Franklin
Gadi, Barlevy
Gale, Douglas
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper uses a risk-shifting model to analyze policy responses to asset price booms. We show
risk shifting leads to ine¢ cient asset and credit booms in which asset prices can exceed fundamentals.
However, the ine¢ ciencies associated with risk shifting arise independently of whether the asset is a
bubble. Given evidence of risk-shifting, policymakers may not need to determine if assets are bubbles to
justify intervention. We then show that some of the main candidate interventions against asset booms
have ambiguous welfare implications: Tighter monetary policy can mitigate some ine¢ ciencies but at a
cost, while leverage restrictions may raise asset prices and lead to more leveraged speculation rather than
less. Policy responses are more e§ective when they disproportionately discourage riskier investments.
risk shifting leads to ine¢ cient asset and credit booms in which asset prices can exceed fundamentals.
However, the ine¢ ciencies associated with risk shifting arise independently of whether the asset is a
bubble. Given evidence of risk-shifting, policymakers may not need to determine if assets are bubbles to
justify intervention. We then show that some of the main candidate interventions against asset booms
have ambiguous welfare implications: Tighter monetary policy can mitigate some ine¢ ciencies but at a
cost, while leverage restrictions may raise asset prices and lead to more leveraged speculation rather than
less. Policy responses are more e§ective when they disproportionately discourage riskier investments.
Date Issued
2022-04-01
Date Acceptance
2020-12-10
Citation
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2022, 14 (2), pp.243-280
ISSN
1945-0443
Publisher
American Economic Association
Start Page
243
End Page
280
Journal / Book Title
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Volume
14
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 American Economic Association.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20200041&&from=f
Subjects
Social Sciences
Economics
Business & Economics
MONETARY-POLICY
BUBBLES
BANKING
DEBT
GROWTH
COSTS
MODEL
14 Economics
Publication Status
Published