Coupled poroelastic modelling of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity: Implications for understanding the post shut-in ML 2.9 earthquake at the Preston New Road, UK
Author(s)
Cao, Wenzhuo
Verdon, James
Ming, Tao
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Post-injection seismicity associated with hydraulic stimulation has posed great challenges to hydraulic fracturing operations. This work aims to identify the causal mechanism of the post shut-in ML 2.9 earthquake in August 2019 at the Preston New Road, UK, amongst three plausible mechanisms, that is, the post shut-in pore pressure diffusion, poroelastic stressing on a non-overpressurized fault, and poroelastic stressing on an overpressurized fault. A 3D fully coupled poroelastic model that considers the poroelastic solid deformation, fluid flow in both porous rocks and fracture structures, and hydrofracturing-induced pressure perturbations was developed to simulate the hydromechanical response of the shale reservoir formation to hydraulic fracturing operations at the site. Based on the model results, Coulomb stress changes and seismicity rate were further evaluated on the PNR-2 fault responsible for the earthquake. Model results have shown that increased pore pressure plays a dominant role in triggering the fault slippage, although the poroelastic stress may have acted to promote the slippage. Amongst the three plausible mechanisms, the post shut-in pore pressure diffusion is the most favored in terms of Coulomb stress change, seismicity rate, timing of fault slippage and rupture area. The coupled modeling results suggested that the occurrence of the post shut-in ML 2.9 earthquake was a three-staged process, involving first propagation of fracture tips that stimulated surrounding reservoir formations, then hydraulic connection with and subsequent pore pressure diffusion to the conductive PNR-2 fault, and eventually fault activation primarily under the direct impact of increased pore pressure.
Date Issued
2022-03
Date Acceptance
2022-02-16
Citation
Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 2022, 127 (3), pp.1-24
ISSN
2169-9356
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Start Page
1
End Page
24
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth
Volume
127
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2022. The Authors.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021JB023376
Subjects
0402 Geochemistry
0403 Geology
0404 Geophysics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-02-20