Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals
File(s)2021-10-06-COVID19-Report-46.pdf (970.39 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Report
Abstract
The SARS‐CoV‐2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death wa ves. We use individual‐level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma’s spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time pe riods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID‐19 in‐hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma’s detection, and were largely transient after Gamma’s detection, subsiding with hospital d emand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geo‐graphic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil’s COVID‐19 in‐hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geo‐graphic inequities and shortages in healthcare c apacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil’s COVID‐19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre‐pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly trans‐missible and deadly pathogens such as SARS‐CoV‐2, especially in low‐ and middle‐income countries.
Date Issued
2021-10-06
Citation
2021, pp.1-20
Start Page
1
End Page
20
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives
4.0 International License.
4.0 International License.
Copyright URL
Sponsor
Medical Research Council (MRC)
Abdul Latif Jameel Foundation
Identifier
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-46-Brazil/
Grant Number
MR/R015600/1
Subjects
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Brazil
Publication Status
Published