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  5. Scenario generation of aggregated wind, photovoltaics and small hydro production for power systems applications
 
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Scenario generation of aggregated wind, photovoltaics and small hydro production for power systems applications
File(s)
Preprint_Scenario_generation_of_aggregated_Wind__Photovoltaics_and_small_Hydro_production_for_power_systems_applications.pdf (1015.18 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Camal, S
Teng, F
Michiorri, A
Kariniotakis, G
Badesa, L
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper proposes a methodology for an efficient generation of correlated scenarios of Wind, Photovoltaics (PV) and small Hydro production considering the power system application at hand. The merits of scenarios obtained from a direct probabilistic forecast of the aggregated production are compared with those of scenarios arising from separate production forecasts for each energy source, the correlations of which are modeled in a later stage with a multivariate copula. It is found that scenarios generated from separate forecasts reproduce globally better the variability of a multi-source aggregated production. Aggregating renewable power plants can potentially mitigate their uncertainty and improve their reliability when they offer regulation services. In this context, the first application of scenarios consists in devising an optimal day-ahead reserve bid made by a Wind-PV-Hydro Virtual Power Plant (VPP). Scenarios are fed into a two-stage stochastic optimization model, with chance-constraints to minimize the probability of failing to deploy reserve in real-time. Results of a case study show that scenarios generated by separately forecasting the production of each energy source leads to a higher Conditional Value at Risk than scenarios from direct aggregated forecasting. The alternative forecasting methods can also significantly affect the scheduling of future power systems with high penetration of weather-dependent renewable plants. The generated scenarios have a second application here as the inputs of a two-stage stochastic unit commitment model. The case study demonstrates that the direct forecast of aggregated production can effectively reduce the system operational cost, mainly through better covering the extreme cases. The comprehensive application-based assessment of scenario generation methodologies in this paper informs the decision-makers on the optimal way to generate short-term scenarios of aggregated RES production according to their risk aversion and to the contribution of each source in the aggregation.
Date Issued
2019-05-15
Date Acceptance
2019-03-09
Citation
Applied Energy, 2019, 242, pp.1396-1406
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/68692
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.112
ISSN
0306-2619
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1396
End Page
1406
Journal / Book Title
Applied Energy
Volume
242
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Energy
09 Engineering
14 Economics
Publication Status
Published online
Date Publish Online
2019-03-27
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