GARCH density and functional forecasts
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Published version
Author(s)
Abadir, Karim M
Luati, A
Paruolo, P
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper derives the analytic form of the multi-step ahead prediction density for single-period returns, when the latter follow a Gaussian GARCH(1,1) process with a possibly asymmetric news impact curve. The Gaussian density has been used in applications as an approximation of the
multi-step ahead prediction density; the analytic form derived here shows that the prediction density, while symmetric, can be far from Gaussian. The explicit form of the prediction density can be used to compute exact tail probabilities and functionals, such as the Value at Risk and the Expected
Shortfall, to quantify expected future required risk capital for single-period returns. Finally, the paper shows how estimation uncertainty can be mapped onto uncertainty regions for any functional of the stated prediction distribution.
multi-step ahead prediction density; the analytic form derived here shows that the prediction density, while symmetric, can be far from Gaussian. The explicit form of the prediction density can be used to compute exact tail probabilities and functionals, such as the Value at Risk and the Expected
Shortfall, to quantify expected future required risk capital for single-period returns. Finally, the paper shows how estimation uncertainty can be mapped onto uncertainty regions for any functional of the stated prediction distribution.
Date Issued
2023-08-01
Date Acceptance
2022-04-19
Citation
Journal of Econometrics, 2023, 235 (2), pp.470-483
ISSN
0304-4076
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
470
End Page
483
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
235
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC
BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
License URL
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-06-01