Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
File(s)eabd9338.full.pdf (1.62 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.
Date Issued
2021-02-19
Date Acceptance
2020-12-08
Citation
Science, 2021, 371 (6531)
ISSN
0036-8075
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science
Journal / Book Title
Science
Volume
371
Issue
6531
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
License URL
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33323424
PII: science.abd9338
Subjects
Asia
Bayes Theorem
COVID-19
Commerce
Communicable Disease Control
Europe
Government
Health Policy
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
Schools
Universities
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
United States
Date Publish Online
2020-12-15