Polyscore of non-invasive cardiac risk factors
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Non-invasive risk stratification of cardiac patients has been the subject of numerous studies. Most of these investigations either researched unique risk predictors or compared the predictive power of different predictors. Fewer studies suggested a combination of a small number of non-invasive indices to increase the accuracy of high-risk group selection. To advance non-invasive risk assessment of cardiac patients, we propose a combination score (termed the Polyscore) of seven different cardiac risk stratifiers that predominantly quantify autonomic cardiovascular control and regulation, namely the slope of heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity of heart rate, non-invasively assessed baroreflex sensitivity, resting respiration frequency, expiration triggered sinus arrhythmia, post-ectopic potentiation of systolic blood pressure, and frequency of supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats. These risk stratification tests have previously been researched and their dichotomies defining abnormal results have been derived from previous reports. The Polyscore combination was defined as the number of positive tests among these seven risk predictors, giving a numerical scale which ranges from 0 (all tests normal) to 7 (all tests abnormal). The Polyscore was tested in a population of 941 contemporarily treated survivors of acute myocardial infarction (median age 61 years, 182 females) of whom 72 (7.65%) died during a 5-year follow-up. In these patients, all the risk predictors combined in the Polyscore were assessed during in-hospital 30-min simultaneous non-invasive recordings of high-frequency orthogonal electrocardiogram, continuous blood pressure and respiration. Compared to Polyscore 0 stratum, the hazard ratios of mortality during follow-up increased almost exponentially in strata 1 through 7 (vs. stratus 0, the hazard ratios were 1.37, 1.96, 7.03, 15.0, 35.7, 48.2, and 114, in strata 1 to 7, respectively; p < 0.0001). This allowed selecting low-risk (Polyscore ≤ 2), intermediate risk (Polyscore 3 or 4) and high-risk (Polyscore ≥ 5) sub-groups of the population that differed greatly in the Kaplan–Meier probabilities of mortality during follow-up. Since the Polyscore was derived from recordings of only 30-min duration, it can be reasonably applied in different clinical situations including population-wide screening. We can therefore conclude that the Polyscore is a reasonable method for cardiac risk stratification that is ready for prospective validation in future independent studies.
Date Issued
2019-02-04
Date Acceptance
2019-01-17
Citation
Frontiers in Physiology, 2019, 10
ISSN
1664-042X
Publisher
Frontiers Media
Journal / Book Title
Frontiers in Physiology
Volume
10
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Steger, Müller, Barthel, Dommasch, Huster, Hnatkova, Sinnecker,
Hapfelmeier, Malik and Schmidt. This is an open-access article distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution
or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and
the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal
is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or
reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Hapfelmeier, Malik and Schmidt. This is an open-access article distributed under the
terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution
or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and
the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal
is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or
reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Sponsor
British Heart Foundation
Grant Number
NH/16/2/32499
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physiology
non-invasive autonomic testing
combination of risk factors
electrocardiogram
blood pressure monitoring
resting respiration
survivors of myocardial infarction
all-cause mortality
low-risk and high-risk group separation
HEART-RATE TURBULENCE
ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION
T-WAVE ALTERNANS
RATE-VARIABILITY
POSTINFARCTION PATIENTS
STRATIFICATION
PREDICTION
MORTALITY
SUDDEN
DEATH
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 49