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  5. Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set
 
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Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set
File(s)
file.pdf (1.14 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Hancock, Penelope A
Rehman, Yasmin
Hall, Ian M
Edeghere, Obaghe
Danon, Leon
more
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Prediction and control of the spread of infectious disease in human populations benefits greatly from our growing capacity to quantify human movement behavior. Here we develop a mathematical model for non-transmissible infections contracted from a localized environmental source, informed by a detailed description of movement patterns of the population of Great Britain. The model is applied to outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease, a potentially life-threatening form of pneumonia caused by the bacteria Legionella pneumophilia. We use case-report data from three recent outbreaks that have occurred in Great Britain where the source has already been identified by public health agencies. We first demonstrate that the amount of individual-level heterogeneity incorporated in the movement data greatly influences our ability to predict the source location. The most accurate predictions were obtained using reported travel histories to describe movements of infected individuals, but using detailed simulation models to estimate movement patterns offers an effective fast alternative. Secondly, once the source is identified, we show that our model can be used to accurately determine the population likely to have been exposed to the pathogen, and hence predict the residential locations of infected individuals. The results give rise to an effective control strategy that can be implemented rapidly in response to an outbreak.
Editor(s)
Ferrari, Matthew
Date Issued
2014-09-11
Date Acceptance
2014-07-14
Citation
PLoS Computational Biology, 2014, 10 (9), pp.1-8
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/103429
URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003809
DOI
https://www.dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003809
ISSN
1553-734X
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Start Page
1
End Page
8
Journal / Book Title
PLoS Computational Biology
Volume
10
Issue
9
Copyright Statement
Copyright: © 2014 Hancock et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
License URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003809
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2014-09-11
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