Approximate Bayesian computation for smoothing
File(s)1206.5208v1.pdf (558.17 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We consider a method for approximate inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). The method circumvents the need to evaluate conditional densities of observations given the hidden states. It may be considered an instance of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and it involves the introduction of auxiliary variables valued in the same space as the observations. The quality of the approximation may be controlled to arbitrary precision through a parameter ε > 0. We provide theoretical results which quantify, in terms of ε, the ABC error in approximation of expectations of additive functionals with respect to the smoothing distributions. Under regularity assumptions, this error is, where n is the number of time steps over which smoothing is performed. For numerical implementation, we adopt the forward-only sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) scheme of [14] and quantify the combined error from the ABC and SMC approximations. This forms some of the first quantitative results for ABC methods which jointly treat the ABC and simulation errors, with a finite number of data and simulated samples. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Date Issued
2014-04-28
Date Acceptance
2013-12-27
Citation
Stochastic Analysis and Applications, 2014, 32 (3), pp.397-420
ISSN
0736-2994
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Start Page
397
End Page
420
Journal / Book Title
Stochastic Analysis and Applications
Volume
32
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2014 Taylor & Francis. This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Stochastic Analysis and Applications on 04 May 2014, available online: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07362994.2013.879262
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
EP/I019111/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Mathematics, Applied
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Approximate Bayesian Computation
Smoothing
Hidden Markov models
Sequential Monte Carlo
stat.CO
stat.CO
stat.ME
0102 Applied Mathematics
0104 Statistics
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
Statistics & Probability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2014-04-28