Private information in currency markets
File(s)MMN_FX_20180122.pdf (534.22 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Michaelides, A
Milidonis, Andreas
Nishiotis, George
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Using daily abnormal currency returns for the universe of countries with flexible exchange rates, we show local currency depreciations ahead of unscheduled, public sovereign debt downgrade announcements. Consistent with the private information hypothesis, the effect is stronger in lower institutional quality countries and holds after we control for concurrent public information and for publicly available rumors about the forthcoming downgrades. Our results persist when abnormal currency returns are adjusted for global carry and dollar risk factors, world equity and bond returns, as well as local stock market returns. Finally, the currency depreciations are permanent, providing evidence for a link between fundamentals and currency markets.
Date Issued
2019-03-01
Date Acceptance
2018-02-19
Citation
Journal of Financial Economics, 2019, 131 (3), pp.643-665
ISSN
0304-405X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
643
End Page
665
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
131
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Subjects
Social Sciences
Business, Finance
Economics
Business & Economics
Sovereign debt ratings
Foreign exchange
Institutional quality
Information leakage
TRMI
TIME PRICE DISCOVERY
STOCK
BOND
RISK
ANNOUNCEMENTS
EVENT
ASK
1502 Banking, Finance and Investment
1606 Political Science
Finance
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-08-31