The added value of genetic information in colorectal cancer risk prediction models: Development and evaluation in the UK Biobank prospective cohort study
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Published version
Author(s)
Smith, Todd
Gunter, Marc
Tzoulaki, Ioanna
Muller, DC
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models could be used to risk-stratify the population to provide individually tailored screening provision. Using participants from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, we evaluated whether the addition of a genetic risk score (GRS) could improve the performance of two previously validated models. Inclusion of the GRS did not appreciably improve discrimination of either model, and led to substantial miscalibration. Following recalibration the discrimination did not change, but good calibration for models incorporating the GRS was recovered. Comparing predictions between models with and without the GRS, 5% of participants or fewer changed their absolute risk by ±0.3% or more in either model. In summary, addition of a GRS did not meaningfully improve the performance of validated CRC-risk prediction models. At present, provision of genetic information is not useful for risk stratification for CRC.
Date Issued
2018-10-16
Date Acceptance
2018-09-11
Citation
British Journal of Cancer, 2018, 119, pp.1036-1039
ISSN
0007-0920
Publisher
Cancer Research UK
Start Page
1036
End Page
1039
Journal / Book Title
British Journal of Cancer
Volume
119
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Author(s). Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
License URL
Sponsor
Cancer Research UK
Cancer Research UK
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Grant Number
C57955/A24390
C57955/A24390
MR/M501712/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Oncology
SCORE
1112 Oncology And Carcinogenesis
Oncology & Carcinogenesis
Publication Status
Published