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Carbon Dioxide Physiological Forcing Dominates Projected Eastern Amazonian Drying
File(s)
OA Location
Author(s)
Richardson, TB
Forster, PM
Andrews, T
Boucher, O
Faluvegi, G
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation indicate drying, but they are uncertain and poorly understood. In this study we analyze the Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings using a number of global climate models. Black carbon is found to drive reduced precipitation over the Amazon due to temperature-driven circulation changes, but the magnitude is uncertain. CO 2 drives reductions in precipitation concentrated in the east, mainly due to a robustly negative, but highly variable in magnitude, fast response. We find that the physiological effect of CO 2 on plant stomata is the dominant driver of the fast response due to reduced latent heating and also contributes to the large model spread. Using a simple model, we show that CO 2 physiological effects dominate future multimodel mean precipitation projections over the Amazon. However, in individual models temperature-driven changes can be large, but due to little agreement, they largely cancel out in the model mean.
Date Issued
2018-03-26
Date Acceptance
2018-03-03
Citation
Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, 45 (6), pp.2815-2825
URI
DOI
ISSN
0094-8276
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
2815
End Page
2825
Journal / Book Title
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
45
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2018 The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Geology
precipitation
Amazon
physiological forcing
fast response
CO2 forcing
stomatal response
HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
CLIMATE-CHANGE
PRECIPITATION CHANGE
DROUGHT SENSITIVITY
CO2
RESPONSES
CIRCULATION
RAINFALL
SCALE
UNCERTAINTY
MD Multidisciplinary
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2018-03-26