Wasserstein generative adversarial network to address the imbalanced data problem in real-time crash risk prediction
File(s)IEEE Man et al. 2022_Final.docx (2.75 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Man, Cheuk Ki
Quddus, Mohammed
Theofilatos, Athanasios
Yu, Rongjie
Imprialou, Marianna
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Real-time crash risk prediction models aim to identify pre-crash conditions as part of active traffic safety management. However, traditional models which were mainly developed through matched case-control sampling have been criticised due to their biased estimations. In this study, the state-of-art class balancing method known as the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) was introduced to address the class imbalance problem in the model development. An extremely imbalanced dataset consisted of 257 crashes and over 10 million non-crash cases from M1 Motorway in United Kingdom for 2017 was then utilized to evaluate the proposed method. The real-time crash prediction model was developed by employing Deep Neural Network (DNN) and Logistic Regression (LR). Crash predictions were performed under different crash to non-crash ratios where synthetic crashes were generated by Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN), Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and Adaptive Synthetic (ADASYN) sampling respectively. Comparisons were then made with algorithmic-level class balancing methods such as cost-sensitive learning and ensemble methods. Our findings suggest that WGAN clearly outperforms other oversampling methods in terms of handling the extremely imbalanced sample and the DNN model subsequently produces a crash prediction sensitivity of about 70% with a 5% false alarm rate. Based on the findings of this study, proactive traffic management strategies including Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and Dynamic Messing Signs (DMS) could be deployed to reduce the probability of crash occurrence.
Date Issued
2022-10-20
Date Acceptance
2022-08-24
Citation
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2022, 23 (12), pp.23002-23013
ISSN
1524-9050
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Start Page
23002
End Page
23013
Journal / Book Title
IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Volume
23
Issue
12
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2022 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works.
Identifier
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9925997
Subjects
Logistics & Transportation
0801 Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing
0905 Civil Engineering
1507 Transportation and Freight Services
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2022-10-20