Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
Date Issued
2023-12
Date Acceptance
2023-12-01
Citation
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2023, 12 (4), pp.323-340
ISSN
2225-6032
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
323
End Page
340
Journal / Book Title
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Volume
12
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi
Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Communication Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S222560322300053X?via%3Dihub
Subjects
BAY
Cyclogenesis
CYCLOGENESIS
Ensemble
EVOLUTION
Forecasting
FREQUENCY
Global
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
MODEL
NORTH INDIAN-OCEAN
Operational
Physical Sciences
PREDICTABILITY
Prediction
PREDICTION SYSTEM
Probabilistic
Science & Technology
Survey
Tropical cyclone genesis
Verification
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-12-21