Stock market mean reversion and portfolio choice over the life cycle
File(s)Paper_latest_sci_nov.pdf (453.95 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Michaelides, A
Zhang, Y
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We solve for optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a life-cycle model with short-sales and borrowing constraints; undiversifiable labor income risk; and a predictable, time-varying, equity premium and show that the investor pursues aggressive market timing strategies. Importantly, in the presence of stock market predictability, the model suggests that the conventional financial advice of reducing stock market exposure as retirement approaches is correct on average, but ignoring changing market information can lead to substantial welfare losses. Therefore, enhanced target-date funds (ETDFs) that condition on expected equity premia increase welfare relative to target-date funds (TDFs). Out-of-sample analysis supports these conclusions.
Date Issued
2017-06-15
Date Acceptance
2015-11-18
Citation
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2017, 52 (3), pp.1183-1209
ISSN
0022-1090
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Start Page
1183
End Page
1209
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Volume
52
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
© Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2017
Sponsor
Commission of the European Communities
Grant Number
PCIG14-GA-2013-631814
Subjects
Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle
Stock Market Mean Reversion
Stock Market Predictability
Hedging Demands
Lifestyle funds
enhanced target-date funds
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-06-15